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5th Gen Toyota 4Runner 2010-2023 | Vehicle Spotlight

Updated: May 16, 2023


The 5th Gen Toyota 4Runner is a ubiquitous vehicle, renown for its ruggedness and reliability. But as with many Toyota's they're well known for holding their value as they age. So here we will examine what goes into the value of a 5th Gen 4Runner.


Lets start with some basic data.

​n=5776

Mean

Median

Min

Max

Year

2019.47

2020

2010

2023

Miles

29,033.04

21,126.0

​2

190,519

Price

​$43,441.72

$42,997.5

$16,988

$69,870

Age

2.53

2

0

12

We can see with just the mean and the median year, that this data skews towards the newer models. With a starting MSRP of $38,105, the 4Runner tends to keep its value quite well. It also shows that older, high mileage examples still maintain that value as well, with the lowest listing price of $16,988.


But we can go into a deeper dive into what correlates with the price of the vehicle. Using a statistical analysis (multivariate regression), we can see what correlates with the price of these 4Runners on the current market. This was final regression model that yielded the most statistically sound and robust results with the data at hand: (Price ~ log(miles) + Year + trim).

Regression Results:

So what does this tell us? Just from this large output of numbers, it can be hard to make some meaning out of this. The first few things to note, was that all coefficients (with the exception of a couple of trim levels) were statistically significant, and so was the regression as a whole. The regression showed that approximately 90% of the change in price was due to miles, year of the vehicle, and the trim level.

But in order to figure out which of these has the largest correlating factor in contributing to the change in price, we need to go a bit deeper, and standardize these results.

Standardization Results:

From this standardization, we now have a list of factors that we can rank in order of what correlates with a change in price.

  1. Year

  2. TRD Pro trim

  3. Limited trim

  4. Off-Road Premium trim

  5. % Increase in Miles

Overall this data makes sense, you are going to be paying more for a low-mileage, highly trimmed, newer vehicle. But it also shows that if you're interested in saving money, the best savings can likely be found in older models, as newer years command a premium.


So let's take a look at some of these trims:

 

TRD Pro

 

Limited

 

Off-Road Premium


 

As is shown in the graphs above, and in the statistical analysis, the model year impacts the 4Runner most when it comes to these car sales listings. So if finding the best price when looking at a Toyota 4Runner, avoid the high-end trims, and focus on getting an older model. But no two cars are created equal, especially when looking at individual listings. Always do your due diligence, and look at all the factors you can before making a purchasing decision.


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